Mornıng Report- (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler )

Erdogan Picks Former Minister of Environment, Urbanisation & Climate Change, as Istanbul Election Candidate
• The BIST100 closed the short week on a positive note, rising by 1.07% higher to 7629, albeit on a low turnover of TRY 69.7bn, led by the gains in the Transportation and Services stocks, while the Banks and the Industrials lagged the gains behind their peers, though the Banks managed to pick-up steam towards the close.
• Amid much speculation that Erdogan would appoint the former Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, and consequently the previous CEO of EKGYO, Mr. Murat Kurum as the AKP’s candidate to run against the Opposition and incumbent Mayor of Istanbul on 31 March, 2024, EKGYO topped the BIST30 stocks, followed by PGSUS and TCELL shares, whereas GUBRF-ALARK and HEKTS were the most sold.
o Mr. Kurum’s appointment strengthens the government’s intentions for the continued urbanization program for Istanbul, and as such, we should expect to see continued rise in the REIT and CEMENT stocks, most notably AKCNS, as the Canal Istanbul project would likely come to play again.
• Ahead of Friday’s Moody’s Sovereign Rate decision, we may see the Banks outperforming its peers.
• For the week, the BIST100 returned 2.12% and the blue-chips 2.40%, led by the gains in the Aviation and Mining stocks, while the Banks lagged the benchmark by rising a mere 0.83%, while the Conglomerates and the Industrials rose by 2.01% and 1.74%, respectively.
• The TRY depreciated sharply against the USD by 1.24%, but strengthened against the Euro by 0.15%, and both the 2y and 10y Bond yields rose significantly by 4.26% and 5.35%, to 41.37% and 28.18%, respectively.
• On the Commodity side, Brent ended the week 2.48% higher, due to the tension in the Red Sea caused by the Yemeni Houthis, and whereas Ounce fell by 0.86% due to the strong data flow from the US, thus appearing to delay the probability of rate cuts anytime soon, gram GOLD rose slightly by 0.10%, due to the rise in the USD/TRY parity.
• As of print, the TRY is trading weaker against the USD at 29.88, but slightly stronger against the Euro at 32.68, while the DXY has risen slightly to 102.48, as of print. The 5yr CDS rates are currently trading at 304.
• On the Commodity front, Brent is trading is starting the week lower at $77.54, and Ounce and Gram GOLD prices have also fallen to $2030, and TRY 1950.
• Please remember that Treasury and Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek and Governor Gaye Erkan will be attending investor meetings in New York on January 11, hosted y JPMorgan.
AGENDA:
• On the local front this week, the Cash Budget Balance will kick-off the new week, followed by the Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Weekly Net Change in Non-Resident STOCK/BOND Holdings, Retail Figures, and end with the Current Account Balance. Moody’s is expected to release its Sovereign Credit Rating for Turkey on Friday, which remains at B3 “Stable,” where an outlook upgrade is expected at the very least, if not a note upgrade.
• On the international front, the most compelling macro news flow will be the US CPI figures (+0.2% m/m; +3.3% y/y), Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, and ending with the PPI, whereas besides the US, Japan will be disclosing its Inflation, Current Account Balance and Trade Balance, while Germany will be releasing its Industrial Production and Factory Orders.
CORPORATE:
• CCOLA: Disclosed its 2024 guidance. Accordingly, sees mid-single volume growth on a consolidated basis, and mid-single growth both in Türkiye and in the international operations. Net Sales Revenues are expected in the low 40s percentage FX-neutral NSR growth. EBIT Margin is expected to remain flat.
• ISCTR: Disclosed that it has been authorized until the end of 2024 starting from the resolution date to purchase free float shares of its listed subsidiaries, up to a maximum total purchase amount of 5 billion Turkish Lira without a company specific purchase amount restriction, to decide under which accounts previously purchased shares and prospective purchases of shares under this resolution will be booked and to sell previously purchased shares and prospective purchases of shares under this resolution if required.
• TUPRS: Disclosed that a shutdown is planned at its Fuel Oil Conversion Unit located in İzmit Refinery starting from March 1, 2024 due to periodic maintenance, which is technically required in every 5 years. The planned shutdown is set to last for 92 days. Although no reduction is foreseen on Tüpraş' sales volume as production loss will be compensated by increased imports, a total EBITDA decrease of 196 million USD is expected due to the decrease in production.

 
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                        Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.