TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The selling appetite at the BIST intensified yesterday from the previous day, with the BIST falling 1.83% to 5523, on a turnover of TRY 125bn, seeing its lowest at 5479 level, with the Mining and Energy stocks seeing the brunt of the sales, whereas the Industrials and Conglomerates fell by 1.68% and 1.24%, whereas the Banks were slightly more resilient to the bloodbath, falling by half-percent.
• At the BIST30 standings, KRDMD, ARCLK and GUBRF were the best performers, whereas ASELS, SASA and KOZAL were the bottom 3 stocks looking up.
• Today, we expect the BIST to open in the positive territory after yesterday’s harsh sell-offs.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading a tad weaker against the USD and Euro at 18.75, and 19.88 respectively, whereas the DXY has risen to 104.27. The 2r and 10yr yields have risen slightly by 3bps and 7bps respectively to 9.36% and 8.67%, respectively.
• On the commodity front, Brent has dipped to below the USD 80 level, but is trading slightly higher this morning at USD 78.85, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading flat at USD 1852 and TRY 1116, respectively. The decline in both natural gas and oil prices can be attributed to mild weather conditions in Europe as well as a pick up in covid cases in China.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the US central bank has at least another percentage point of interest-rate increases to do in 2023 even as inflation is showing signs of reversing. “It will be appropriate to continue to raise rates at least at the next few meetings until we are confident inflation has peaked,” Kashkari said in an essay published Wednesday on Medium.com. “I have us pausing at 5.4%, but wherever that end point is, we won’t immediately know if it is high enough to bring inflation back down to 2% in a reasonable period of time,” Kashkari said. “Any sign of slow progress that keeps inflation elevated for longer will warrant, in my view, taking the policy rate potentially much higher.”
• At yesterday’s FOMC meeting, the minutes from the December FOMC meeting showed that the officials were committed to fighting inflation and expect higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made. More importantly, the Minutes showed that No Fed official expects an interest-rate cut to be appropriate this year. This contradicts with the swap pricing that is looking for 25-50bps rate cut for the second half of the year.
NEWS FLOW:
• BANKS: The CBRT sent a letter to the banks indicating that the discount rate on CPI-linker coupons was increased to 70% from 60%, please recall that this rate was 30% last year. As such, Banks will be using roughly 10% less of their CPI linkers to raise repo funding, implying roughly TRY 8-10bn less funding per large bank. This may increase the TRY time-deposit costs by a couple of percentage points in our view. Higher rates and lower inflation may not be constructive for the stock market performance.
• AUTOMOTIVE: December sales rose by 99% to 86,774, with LCY sales rising by 55.2% to 28,446 units.
• EGKYO/DAPGM: Disclosed that the revenue from their Yeni Levent Project has been increased to TRY 3.8bn from TRY 1.6bn.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the weekly Foreigners’ Net Stock/Bond investments will be disclosed, whereas on the international side, the US ADP, Trade Balance, and Jobless Claims will be followed. The most important data on the international front will be the NFP that will be released tomorrow.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.