TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST suffered harsh sell-offs, mostly as leveraged investors had to adjust their margins by selling their stocks, which triggered panic selling across the board. While we are envisaging reactionary buying at the opening of the session, redemptions out of equity funds may drag down the index to the red later in the day. The internal political ambiguity did little to calm the nerves as well, as Turkey seems to be heading into early elections, with the most likely date appearing to be May 14th, 2023, as opposed to the previously planned June 18th, Presidential elections.
• There is no need really to detail how the sectors fared, because everything was once again indiscriminately sold-off.
• Today, we expect the BIST to open with positively after yesterday’s harsh sell-offs, and view the closing of margin calls as a buying opportunity.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 18.77, and against the Euro at 19.75, whereas the DXY has climbed a tad to 105.20. The 2r rates rose slight by 3bps to 9.36%, whereas the 10yr yields fell by 10bps to 8.57%. The CDS rose by 19pts yesterday to 529.
• On the commodity front, Brent is recovering from its recent slump, and trading higher at USD 79.30, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices have also pared yesterday’s 1% sell-offs to trade higher at USD 1838 and TRY 1109, respectively.
• The better-than-expected ADP figures yesterday did little to appease investors, as it strengthened the case for the Fed to continue with its aggressive rate hikes. NFP will give the real colour as to the tight labour market evolution today. ADP’s calculation change did not help the two indicators to provide even similar directions.
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said interest rates are getting closer to a high enough level to bring down inflation, suggesting he’s comfortable with policymakers’ projections of how much further they will hike this year. “The policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive, but it is getting closer.”
• Russia has called for a ceasefire in Ukraine between Jan 6-7 due to Orthodox Christmas.
• Last week, Foreigners were net Seller of USD 54mn Stocks, but net Buyers of USD 53mn Bonds. News regarding banks asking for reasons in their clients’ FX transfers to abroad definitively does not help foreign portfolio inflows at all.
• President Erdogan will be attending the Turkey Sovereign Wealth Meeting today.
NEWS FLOW:
• EREGL: Arcelor disclosed that it sold 2% of stake in Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS. The company had held a 5% stake in the company before the transaction.
• The banking watchdog BRSA has increased the maximum instalment limitation on refurbished mobile phones from 6 months to 12 months. Also the maximum price for new phones to be eligible for 12 months of consumer loans has been increased from TRY5k to TRY12k. The news could be perceived slightly positively on TKNSA, TCELL and TTKOM.
• FRIGO: Disclosed that it has obtained a €1,416,038 contract with a foreign client, with total exports accruing to €23.5mn in 2023.
• MERKO: Disclosed that with regards to its capital increase, €3.5mn will be from leasing, and the remaining €2.243mn from internal financing.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the Cash Budget Balance will be released, whereas on the international front, the US NFP figures will be the most compelling data flow (Cons. +203k), as well as the Employment Figures, and the Eurozone will be disclosing the CPI figures

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.