TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST managed to scrape a gain of 0.28% to close a depressing week at 4985, with a rather low turnover of TRY 89.2bn, with the Energy and Industrials stocks pulling the benchmark higher, whereas the Banks fell by 0.28%, and the REITs lost closed nearly 1%.
• SASA, PGSUS, thanks to its pax numbers, and PETKM led the gains at the BIST30, whereas EKGYO, ARCLK and TKFEN were the most sold.
• For the week, the BIST100 fell by 6.68%, as the Banks lost nearly 12%, followed by the REITs’ 9% fall, whereas the Industrials lost a mere 4%, speaking comparatively, of course, and the Transportation stocks 5.25% lower.
• The TRY weakened slightly by 0.33% against the USD but losing value against the Euro at a more alarming rate, with another 2% depreciation, which is positive for companies with a net FX position.
• On the commodity front, Brent soared by 9%, and GOLD rose by 3%.
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST due to the revised regulations to the Banking sector.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading flat at 18.78 against the USD, and weaker against the Euro at 20.40, whereas the DXY is lower at 101.97 Whereas the 2yr bond rates closed flat at 9.87%, the 10yr yields rose by 49bps to 10.32%. The 5yr CDS will open the new week higher at the 555 level.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading lower at USD 84.79, and ounce and gram GOLD are flat at USD 1919 and TRY 1160, respectively.
• The US CPI fell by 0.1% m/m, thus in-line with the market expectations, and receding to 6.5% y/y, whereas excluding the food and energy, the CPI rose by 0.3% m/m and 5.7% y/y, thus adding to evidence that some price pressures are easing and offering the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of interest-rate hikes next month.
• Please note that the Davos Economic Summit will start today.
NEWS FLOW:
• BANKS: The CBRT disclosed that the reserve requirement ratios for lira deposits with a maturity longer than three months will be lowered to zero from current levels as high as 6% but will remain at 8% for deposits with a maturity of less than three months, which is the favourite duration of the depositors. The changes are to come into effect as of Feb. 3. Thus, the move comes as the CBRT “aims to increase the weight of the Turkish lira on both the asset and liability sides of the banking system.”
• CORPORATES: The corporate tax rate will fall to 20% from the current 23%, but remain at 25% for Banks, and fall to 19% from 22% for export companies. This is a natural adjustment as 2021 tax rate for corporates were lifted up to 25 from 20% a year earlier, which should normally ease down back to 20% in 2023 if no further action is taken.
• HOUSING: Applications for the “My New Home” program will begin today.
• ENERGY: The Energy Regulator fined 40 companies for overpricing and ordered them to refund consumers a total of TRY 10.2bn ($542.5 million), excluding tax, to be deducted from the consumers’ electricity bills.
• AUTOMOTIVE: Total production rose by 6% in 2022, and 4% y/y.
• According to media reports, the US Ministry of Foreign Affairs has asked Congress to allow the selling of F16 fighter jets to Turkey. This may create a positive trade for ASELS shares.
• ALARK: Disclosed that its subsidiary Altek has applied for 827.5mw storage facility.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the Central Gov’t Budget Balance will kick-off the new week, followed by the Home Sales figures and Prices, as well as the MPC meeting (Cons. 9% vs Prev. 9%), and Change in Weekly Foreigners’ Stock/Bond positions.
• On the international front, the CPI figures will be released from the Eurozone, and across the Pond, the US Retail Sales, PPI numbers, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, The Beige Book, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, and Existing Home Sales figures will be released.
• Besides these, China’s IP, Retail Sales and GDP, and Japan’s CPI, IP and BOJ meeting will also be monitored.
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.