TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

RISING INTEREST RATES SCARE BIST INVESTORS
" The BIST once again managed to scrape another positive opening yesterday, but not without the usual suspense and nail-biting, closing the day 0.43% higher at 5146, and with a turnover of TRY 62.9bn, lifted by the 2.32% gains in the Banking stocks, whereas the Energy stocks continued to face profit-takings after their recent surge. The slightly lower than expected US CPI figures also helped buoy the gauge higher. The European markets also closed slightly higher thanks to the US Inflation figures.
" Thus, looking at the BIST30 table, GARAN, SASA and ASELS led the gains, whereas ODAS, HEKTS, and TOASO were the most sold.
" Garanti is likely to have a limited 300 bp q-q TRY spread erosion in 1Q23 as it has started pushing for 60% TRY deposit share in late March and did not face the full quarter burden, while peers may have a wider 400-500bp spread pressure. The stock may perform better than the peer banks on the way to 1Q23 result announcement as TRY core spread evolution is the key item we are tracking for quarterly banking performance.
" Today, we expect a flat/slightly down opening at the BIST.
" As of yesterday's close, the TRY is trading a tad weaker against the greenback at 19.32, but slightly stronger against the Euro at 21.23, and the DXY is fairly calm at 101.55. The 2yr and 10yr rates are continuing to rise dangerously higher, with high interest rates the main foe of stock markets, as risk-averse investors become more easily lured into parking their cash into savings accounts than endure the volatility in the equities. As such, the 2yr rates rose by 62bps to close at 16.61, after peaking at 17.44% during the day, and the 10yr rates rose by 26bps, and closed at their highest level for the day at 12.68%.
" On the commodity front, Brent has calmed down to USD 86.68, and both ounce and gram GOLD are trading higher after yesterday's fall in US CPI figures to USD 2018 and TRY 1254, respectively.
" Yesterday, the US CPI figures rose 0.1% monthly and 5% annually in March, slightly less than the estimates, however core inflation including food and energy, increased 0.4% and 5.6% on an annual basis. Mild recession warning for late 2023 in FED minutes lessened the probability of aggressive rate hikes by the Fed, albeit the probability of a 25bps rate hike is still in the books for May.
" The FOMC Minutes from March 22nd meeting revealed caution after the collapse of several banks that could cause a "mild recession" later this year, depending on how severe the banking industry's troubles prove to be and to what extent they will cause a cutback in lending, thus showing that several Fed officials actually considered a pause in the rate hikes in March.
" ECB policymaker and head of the Austrian Central Bank, Herr Robert Holzmann told the local media that the ECB should increase rate hikes by 50bps in May due to the persistence of inflation, and the ECB VP, Luis de Guindos expressed caution regarding core inflation.
NEWS FLOW:
" EKGYO: Disclosed that it has signed a TRY 3.5bn and TRY 2.3bn construction agreements with the Ministry of Urban Planning and Environment in the earthquake hit city of Adiyaman.
" MGROS: Disclosed that it has sold 28,662 sqm land in Istanbul for TRY 706.5mn, thus recording a net profit of TRY 233mn
" SASA: Disclosed that it has applied to increase its paid-in capital by 127%
" Today, CVK Maden and Koza Polyester Sanayi will start trading at the BIST with the CVKMD.E and KOPOL.E tickers, respectively.
" Yesterday, President Erdogan stated that a Municipal Hospital will be built in every city. We deem this news especially positive for FONET, which provides information technologies in the heath sector.
AGENDA:
" Weekly Foreign Net Stock/Bond investment changes will be released on the local front, whereas the US PPI and Jobless Claims will be followed on the international side.



 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.