Early colour on tourism demand following recent earthquakes in Turkiye (Oyak Yatırım)

According to Reuters, 50:50 THY- Lufthansa JV SunExpress’ Chief Executive Mr Kownatzkis stated that summer bookings to Turkey spiked as of this month after a brief drop following February's devastating earthquakes. Within the first week right after the earthquake they saw significant demand drops, roughly 50-52% in international demand. They observed the hit for roughly 10 days and after those 10 days demand has absolutely recovered. March 2023 data comprised of 60% higher forward bookings y/y. SunExpress will increase its seat capacity by 13% and add 26 routes this year and will operate with a fleet of 66 aircraft this season. In 2023, SunExpress is targetting carrying 12mn pax (2022: 10.7mn), generating revenue of EUR1.63bn (2022: EUR1.49bn) and EBIT of EUR80.1mn (2022: EUR85mn). It is also added that there is a lot of volatility on inflation, fuel and FX making them conservative about assumptions. Please note that in THY’s 2022 financials which included consolidated net income of TL47bn, net income contribution from subsidiaries consolidated via equity pick-up was TL2.2bn (i.e. SunExpress TL614mn, TFS Akaryakıt TL579mn, TGS TL398mn, THY Opet TL226mn). Due to Omicron related weak base of 2022’s first months, annual increases’ implication is limited at the moment but news is supportive for initial tourism demand since SunExpress is an important carrier linking Europe to Turkiye both on leisure travel front and ethnic travel with direct flights from Europe to many Anatolian cities. Thus, news is slightly positive for aviation (both carriers and airport operator TAVHL) and tourism sectors in general.

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 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.