Mornıng Report (Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 closed Friday 1.15% higher at 7986, despite a negative opening due to the US/UK attacks on Yemen, and rising oil prices, with a turnover of TRY 122.7bn, peaking at 8082 for the day, but realizing profit takings in the last 30 minutes of trading, from around the 8060 level, as it appears either investors did not want to awaken to an unpleasant surprise Saturday morning from Moody’s.
• As such, the rating’s agency upgraded its outlook for Turkey to Positive from Stable, which was the general consensus, but fingers were crossed for a rating upgrade, which did not happen, thus “confirming” the rating note at B3. Moody’s explained that the reason for the outlook upgrade was the change in the monetary policy which have a higher probability of bringing the high inflation rate to a more sustainable level.
• The Banks led the gains thanks to the Moody’s rally, rising on average 1.90%, and followed by the Mining stocks due to the escalation of tension, which jacked-up GOLD prices, while the Energy and Industrial stocks lagged the benchmark.
• AKBNK-TAVHL and KOZAA were the largest gainers, while YKBNK diverged negatively from its peers, and fell by 1.55% after HSBC’s outlook downgrade to HOLD and followed by AKSEN and SASA shares.
• Now, as a quick summary of last week, the BIST100 and BIST30 returned 4.69% and 5.63% gains to investors, thanks to the 14.21% surge in the Banks-due to the “Moody’s Rally,” (AKBNK +19.17; GARAN +17.71%; YKBNK 15.22%; ISCTR 13.07%) and the REITs rose by 5.54%, on the back of the AKP appointment of former Urbanization Minister, Mr. Murat Kurum, amid speculations that the Urban transformation will be taken to the next level, especially in Istanbul. EKGYO shares surged by nearly 13%, and AKCNS rose by nearly 9% due to the probable resuscitation of the Canal Istanbul project, alongside the 9% rise in CIMSA shares.
• The TRY weakened past the 30 parity against the USD, thus hitting a new zenith at 30.38, thus depreciating by 0.90%, and also losing 0.92% face value against the Euro. The 2yr Bond rates retreated slightly by 1.04%, while the drawback in the 10yr rates was more evident, falling by 4.86% to 40.94% and 26.81%, respectively, on the back of CBRT Governor Erkan’s anticipating the completion of the monetary policy tightening cycle as soon as possible.
• On the Commodity front, despite the pike on Friday, Brent fell by 0.79%, and while Ounce rose by nearly a quarter percent, Gram GOLD prices surges by 1.13% for the week. The 5yr CDS rates are currently trading at 306.
• As of print, the TRY is trading flat against the USD and the Euro at 30.10 and 33, respectively, while the DXY rate has fallen slightly to 102.37.
• Brent is trading slightly higher as well at $78.20, and Ounce and Gram GOLD have risen to $2056 and TRY 1989, respectively.
• The Current Account Balance gave a deficit of USD 2.7bn in November, and the 11mth accumulated deficit has thus risen to USD 43.6bn.
• Automotive: 2023 production rose by 9% and exports by 5% to 1.468mn and 1.18mn, respectively.
AGENDA:
• On the local front this week, The Central Gov’t Budget Balance will kick-off the macro news flow, followed by the Housing Prices, Net Change in Non-Resident Stock/Bond Holdings, Home Sales Figures, and the Expected 12mth Inflation reading, which was previously at 41.23%.
• The US will release its Fed Beige Book, the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate, while our colleagues in the Eurozone will be disclosing the Inflation numbers. Our US colleagues will be absent today in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
• The Davos World Economic Summit will also kick-off this week on the theme “Cooperation in a Fragmented World.”
CORPORATE:
• KAREL: Disclosed yesterday that a fire broke out at its Ankara card processing and packaging plant, but was put out quickly, and added that the factory and the inventories were insures.
• ONCSM: Disclosed that it was awarded a 24mth TRY 37.6mn tender for the procurement of medicine used in chemotherapy.
• DAPGM: Disclosed that it was conducting strategic analysis for projects in the Middle East and Asia Pacific area, as well as alternative sales channels and customers.

 
 Trive Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  https://www.trive.com.tr/

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                        Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.