TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

•The BIST100 rose from the grave yesterday, rebounding from the 7300 level, to close the day 0.19% higher at 7529, but on a low turnover of TRY 95.4bn, with the Mining and Conglomerates spearheading the gains, while the Banks fell by nearly half-a-percent, however the Energy and REITs were the most sold sectors. The US markets also enjoyed a joyous trading session, rallying after the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged for a second consecutive time. The 10year US Bond rates also fell noticeably to 4.755, after peaking at 4.94. Accordingly, the markets perceived Powell's post-policy press conference as dovish.
• SASA-TCELL and TUPRS led the gains among the BIST30 stocks, whereas ODAS faced profit-takings, and fell by 2.62%, and was followed by TAVHL and PETKM shares.
• As of yesterday's session closing levels, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 28.33, but weaker against the Euro at 30.03, while the DXY has retreated slightly to 106.38. The 2yr and 10yr Bond yields both closed higher, by 221% and 17bps, to 37.37% and 28.28%, respectively.
• On the commodity side, Brent has risen to above the $85 level to $85.29, and ounce and gram GOLD are trading higher after yesterday's dovish Powell speech at $1987and TRY 1810, respectively.
• As widely expected, the FOMC kept rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, as was widely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the post-decision press conference stated that they would not rule out a hike in December, saying that the idea that it would be difficult to raise rates after pausing for two meetings was wrong.
• The CBRT continued further tightening measures yesterday for FX-denominated savings accounts. According, the Required Resave Requirement Rate for maturities up to 6 months was raised to 30% from 25%, and maturities up to 1 year and above were raised to 10% from 5%. A 4% TRY requirement on FX accounts was also implemented.
AGENDA

• On the local front today, the Weekly Non-Resident STOCK/BOND Holdings will be released, as well as the CBRT Inflation Assessment Report, while the PMIs from Germany, and US Weekly Jobless Claims, and Factory Orders will be tracked on the US front, and the BOE will release its policy rate today, but is expected to maintain the rates unchanged.

3Q23 RESULTS

• AEFES: Reported TRY49.79bn of Net Sales (+67.3% y/y), 1.6% above analysts’ consensus. The company’s EBITDA increased +83.0% y/y and totaled TRY12.19bn, beating consensus by 7.3%. The EBITDA margin appeared to be 24.5%, this is 1.3pp above market expectations. The Net Profit amounted to TRY4.73bn, beating consensus by 28.9%.
• BRISA : In the 3Q23, the company reported Net Sales of TRY5.5bn, just 1.5% above the consensus estimate, accompanied by a noteworthy y-y growth of 51%. The EBITDA reported exceeded the forecasted estimate by 4.4% and surpassed the highest estimate of TRY1.25bn, featuring an EBITDA margin of 23%. The reported Net Profit for the quarter also modestly exceeded the consensus estimate by 9.2%, demonstrating a y-y growth of 81%.
• THYAO: Reported TRY169.09bn of Net Sales (+55.8% y/y), which is just in line with the consensus forecast. The EBITDA also matched consensus, beating it just by 1.6%, and totaling to TRY55.79bn (+63.3% y/y). The EBITDA margin of 33.0% is slightly above consensus (32.5%). The Net Profit of TRY51.33bn outrun market expectations by 20.4%.
• MGROS : The reported Net Sales in the 3Q23 amounted to TRY41.7bn, surpassing the consensus estimate of TRY41.1bn by 1.4%. The company's y-y Net Sales growth stands impressively at 91.2%. EBITDA also exceeded expectations by 6.4%, along with an EBITDA margin of 7.3% and a y-y growth of 49%. The Net Profit reached TRY2.17bn, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate by 60.3%, even exceeding Gedik Yatirim's highest estimate of TRY1.8bn, showcasing an impressive y-y growth of 170%.

CORPORATE

• AEFES - Revised its expectations for the year 2023, disclosing that the consolidated beer sales volume is expected to grow from low to single-digit to low to mid-single digit, beer group net sales revenue from low twenties percentage growth to mid-high twenties percentage growth, and EBITDA margin is expected to be parallel to last year's levels without a 100 basis point contraction, as is the beer group EBITDA margin.
• ALARK - The license amendment application to the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) for the establishment of Independent Electricity Storage Facilities at four different locations with a total capacity of 1000 MW by the company's subsidiary Alen Alarko Energy has been approved and announced that it has been decided to increase the capital of Alsera Geothermal and to participate in it by the company subsidiary Alarko Agriculture.
• CONSE - Capital of Mavibayrak East has been increased from 19 million TL to 24.8 million TL.
• GEDIK - The company decided to increase the capital of GYT Information, of which it owns 100%, from 5 million TL to 50 million TL and the company decided to purchase 12,121,214 shares corresponding to 32% of HiVC Venture Capital Investment Partnership, of which 56.2% of its capital belongs to the company and 9.8% to INVEO, for 27.2 million TL.
• IMASM - It was announced that the company received an order worth 99.5 million TL.
• KTLEV - Signed new home and vehicle contracts worth a total of 2.25 billion TL in October.
• MANAS - The Bolu branch has been included due to the completion of the project made to Bolu Municipality.
• NETAS - The company announced that it received an order from Turkcell Sales for Superbox supply worth 8.2 million Chinese yuan.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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