TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST100 ended the week on another sour note, falling buy 1.70% to 4813, with a low turnover of TRY 48.5bn, as investors seem to be on wait-and-see mode ahead of the May 14th Presidential elections. The Banks lost relatively less compared to the benchmark, whereas the ytd sell-offs continued at the Energy stocks, closing Friday 3.50%, and the ytd aggregate losses in the sector accumulating to 29%. The Mining stocks continued their recent positive divergence, rising by 1.60&.
• On Friday, HALKB, KOZAL and AKBNK were the biggest movers in the BIST30, whereas TTKOM, ISCTR and VESTL were the most sold.
• For the week, the BIST receded by 4.35%, with the Energy and Transportation stocks seeing the largest drawbacks, falling by 10.75% and 7.23%, whereas the Banks were at par with the benchmark, the Industrials lost slightly above, and the Conglomerates lost slightly less than the gauge.
• The TRY weakened by a half-percent against the USD, but down 1.24% against the Euro, whereas the 2yr and 10yr bond yields fell by 12.63% and 13.73%, respectively.
• On the commodity front, Brent rose by over 6% since Friday’s BIST close, due to OPEC decision of cutting daily production by 1.2 tonnes, and ounce GOLD fell by 0.47%, whereas gram GOLD was unmoved due to the depreciation of the TRY against the greenback.
• We may see the hike in oil prices reflect positively onto TUPRS shares today, after OPEC+ cut production in a surprise move on Sunday. The increase came after Saudi Arabia, Iraq and several Gulf states said on Sunday they were cutting output by more than one million barrels a day. Accordingly, Saudi Arabia is reducing output by 500,000 barrels per day and Iraq by 211,000. The UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman are also making cuts. Both ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading lower at USD 1953, and TRY 1205, respectively.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading slightly weaker at 19.20 against the USD, and 20.72 against the Euro, whereas the DXY is trading higher at 103. The 2yr and 10yr bond yields will start the new week from the 13.08% and 10.49%, respectively.
• The maturity on FX-Protect TRY deposits have been extended to March 31, 2023, given that the deposits had been opened until December, 2023.
• On Friday, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook for Turkey to "negative" from "stable", citing vulnerabilities from the country's low policy rates, directed lending and regulatory control on its foreign currency positions and interest rates. It expects GDP growth rate at 2.1 and 2.8% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, while seeing the TRY depreciate against the USD to 24 and 27, and pencilling in inflation at 44.6% and 22.4%.
• Today, we expect a slightly positive opening at the BIST100.
NEWS FLOW:
• Today, ENKAI will be added to the BIST30, whereas TKFEN will be removed, and on the BIST50 side, ENKAI and GESAN will be included, replacing AGHOL and OTKAR.
• ALARK: Disclosed buying a 128k sqm agricultural land and 4700-hectare geothermal land in Afyon for TRY 75.5mn
• KOZAL: Disclosed that it has made a profit of TRY 760mn from the sale of 48 assets.
• ISCTR; SAHOL, and CIMSA will distribute gross TRY 0.92/share, TRY 1.75/share and TRY 2.96/share cash dividends respectively today.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, all eyes will be on the inflation rate today, (Est. +2.90%/m/m & +51.30% y/y), kicking the week off with the PMI figures (Prev. 50.1), and followed by the Effective Exchange Rate, Weekly Foreigners’ Net STOCK/BOND investments, and ending the week with the Cash Budget Balance.
• On the international side, the US will be releasing the PMI, ADP, Trade Balance and the NFP, and the Eurozone will also be disclosing the PMI, and PPI figures, with China to release its Caixin PMI numbers.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.