TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

ALL EYES TODAY ON US NFP FIGURES
• The BIST100 closed up yesterday just shy of 2% at 3554, and turnover of TRY 72.5bn, diverging positively from its global peers, as we observed the recent risk-on mode continue at the BIST after last month’s harsh-sell-offs. Even the rise in the US 10yr yields to over 3.80% could not stop the BIST’s up-move yesterday.
• The Banks set the tone early on for gains, and closed the day 3.21% higher, with the Mining stocks recording the highest gains of nearly 5%, whereas the Aviation stocks faced profit-taking.
• GUBRF, KOZAA and SAHOL led the gains among the BIST30 stocks, whereas the most sold were TAVHL, PETKM and PGSUS.
• The TRY was flat yesterday at 18.57, and is currently trading just south of the 18.58 level, and the DXY is flat at 112.16. Whereas the 2yr bond yields rose by 16bps to 15.71%, the 10yr rates were flat at 12%. The 5yr CDS rates for Turkey were unchanged at 766.
• Today, we expect a flat-positive opening at the BIST
• On the commodity front, Brent rose to USD 94 yesterday, after the OPEC+ production cut decision for November, prompting US legislators to draft a bill to pull US troops from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in retaliation to Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi throwing their weight behind the OPEC+ decision to cut the bloc’s oil output by 2mn b/d starting in November, but has since retreated slightly to USD 93.56.
• Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans stated that the Fed’s benchmark interest rate will probably be at 4.5% to 4.75% by next spring as central bank officials worry about high core inflation.
• Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester stated that she believes the U.S. unemployment rate will likely rise a little bit as the Fed raises rates, but that won't stop the central bank from pursuing "job one" of fighting inflation, adding that she doesn’t see the Fed cutting interest rates next year.
• EU commissioner for financial services Mairead McGuinness said on Twitter that her visit to Turkey was “an opportunity to convey our strong focus on the implementation of our sanctions against Russia and the need to detect and root out circumvention and evasion.”
• The United States stated that it could ease sanctions on Venezuela, thus allowing Chevron to pump oil, if the country takes steps towards restoring democracy, according to the WSJ.
o As we mentioned in our report yesterday, this reconciliatory move by the US was expected in the wake of the OPEC+ decision.
• Today, President Erdogan will be holding a phone call with Vladimir Putin, with the War, and wheat, and fertilizer procurement to be the main items on the agenda, and Treasury and Finance Minister will be speaking at the Uludag Economic Summit.
NEWS FLOW:
• Turkey’s custody bank-Takasbank, has reduced the market based position limit to 50% from 100% and also applied certain requirements to curb down risks. Thus we may see investors come to the spot market from the Futures.
• Last week, Foreigners were net SELLERS of USD 300mn STOCKS-the biggest outflow since June 10th amid the rout in the Banking stocks, but net BUYERS of USD 5mn BONDS.
AGENDA:
• On the local front, September Net Cash Budget Balance will be released, but the important data release will be the change in US NFP figures, which is expected to rise 250k, as well as the Unemployment and Earnings’ Data.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.