TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• Despite a strong opening, peaking at a new historic level of 6011 even, the BIST succumbed to profit-takings towards the close of the session, closing flat at 5904 and with a hefty turnover of TRY 121bn, ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, in which he warned that interest rates are likely to be higher than the central bank policy makers expected. “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” he added. This statement triggered sell-offs as it sparked fears that rates may need to go higher for longer, thus fuelling fears of a potentially larger rate hike at the next FOMC meeting.
• The Banks fell by 0.37%, and the Conglomerates shed 0.41%, however the losses among the Mining stocks, in tandem with the fall in the global GOLD prices, and the REITS were the largest, whereas the Energy stocks managed to diverge positively from their peers.
• The positive quarterly results by PGSUS were reflected onto the gains on its equities, and thus helping it to top the BIST30 list, followed by TAVHL and DOHOL, whereas HALKB, VAKBN and EKGYO, were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a flat-negative opening at the BIST, stressed by the Powell hungover from last night.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 18.93, but please be aware of the slight incremental increase of the USD, but is trading stronger against the Euro at 19.93, whereas the DXY has gained even more ground overnight, currently trading at 105.84. Both the 2yr and 10yr bond yields were unchanged at 10.50% and 11.85%, respectively.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading lower at USD 83.25, and ounce and gram GOLD prices have continued their fall after Powell’s speech to USD 1812 and TRY 1102, respectively.
• The Treasury gave a record cash deficit in February of TRY 171.5bn
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• EKGYO POSITIVE: Posted TRY953mn net profit, TRY1192mn EBITDA and TRY2374mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is 46% above the consensus mean, net sales is 46% above the consensus mean whereas EBITDA was 66% above the consensus mean, EBITDA Margin was 50% realized vs 44% expected.
• TKFEN NEUTRAL: Posted TRY1660mn net profit, TRY559mn EBITDA and TRY9450mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is 184% above the consensus mean thanks predominantly to deferred tax income as well as equity pickup profit contribution of a subsidiary, net sales is in line with the consensus mean whereas EBITDA was 26% below the expectations on lower than expected EBITDA Margin (5.9% realized vs %8.4 expected). We deem the results neutral rather than negative as equity-pickup returns can be count indirectly as EBITDA accretive as well.
• OZKGY POSITIVE: Ozak GYO posted strong numbers. The EBITDA is 45% better than expected and the bottom-line is 13% above the consensus mean at TRY3.7bn. Annual net profit of TRY10.3bn for 2022 is even larger than the TRY10.1bn implying less than 1x P/E.
NEWS FLOW:
• The Ministry of Agriculture disclosed that it has uplifted its export ban on tomatoes
• ALFAS: Disclosed that it will increase its registered capital to TRY 4bn from TRY 200mn
• GESAN: Disclosed that it has been awarded a USD 1.6mn order
• GKNUR: Shares will start trading tomorrow
• ISGYO: Disclosed that Akdere Insaat has made 7mn shares tradeable at the BIST
• MPARK: Disclosed that Lightyear Healthcare has made 6, 032 shares tradeable at the BIST
• SMRTG: Disclosed that it signed a preliminary deal worth TRY 42mn
• YUNSA: Disclosed that it will increase its registered capital to TRY 500mn from TRY 35mn
AGENDA:
• There are no compelling local macro news expected today, whereas on the international side, the German Retail Sales and Industrial Production, as well as ECB Head, Christine Lagarde’s speech will be monitored, whereas the U.S. will be disclosing the February ADP figures, and the Beige Book, as well as Powell’s second day of testimony before congress.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
                           ***
                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.