TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

WORRIES IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS GAINS AT HOME AS WELL
• The BIST100 closed yesterday 0.40% higher at 3582, with a turnover of TRY 56.9bn, thanks to the gains in the Aviation and REITs, whereas the Banks sunk by 1.12%.
• ASELS, KOZAL and TAVHL led the gains at the BIST30, whereas HALKB, GUBRF, and ISCTR, were the most sold.
• The TRY is currently trading flat at 18.58, and whereas the 2yr yields fell by 20bps to 15.37%, the 10yr bond yields continued their recent slow but steady ascend by another 27bps yesterday to 12.33%. The DXY rose to 113.15, and the CDS rates rose by 3pts to 776.
• On the commodity front, Brent fell to USD 95, due to heightened concerns of a global recession, and coupled with expectations of greater rate hikes by the Fed, especially after the higher-than expected NFP figures, and to culminate on Thursday’s critical inflation figures, which will give us an idea which way the scale will tilt. As such, both ounce and gram GOLD prices are continuing to fall, currently at USD 1665 and TRY 995, respectively.
• Today, we expect a flat opening at the BIST.
• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard reiterated yesterday that the U.S. central bank's plan to continue tightening monetary policy until there is clear evidence that inflation has slowed down, and that the taken measures have just began to take their effect, warning that the U.S. economy will likely slow further as a result of elevated interest rates.
• Earlier in the day, Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans stated that rates will need to remain at higher levels, and that inflation pressures are increasingly broad-based and require tighter monetary policy. Evans added that he expects that policy setting, together with the Fed’s continuing program of reducing its $8.8 trillion in asset holdings, will restrict economic growth and soften the labor market.
• Speaking at the post cabinet meeting last night, President Erdogan stated that the Government is preparing a TRY 100bn loan package thru Halkbank (HALKB), with a maturity of 60 months and 7.5% annual interest rate for artisans and craftsmen.
• President Erdogan also stated that the auto loans have been increased to TRY 1.5mn from the current TRY 1mn, thus this may create some interest on the Auto stocks.
NEWS FLOW:
• SAHOL: Disclosed that it has established a solar energy company, Sabanci Renwables, in the United States, with a total capacity of 272mw.
• TTRAK: Disclosed that is has received a TRY 989.9mn investment incentive from the government.
• SMARTG: Disclosed that it has obtained a deal worth from a local client for TRY 230mn
• Turkey has raised sugar prices by 8% yesterday, the main reason for the limit-up closing of KTSKR.
• Please note that we have issued a BUY GARAN/SHORT ISCTR pair trade-please check your mail boxes shortly...
o We are in anticipation of a somewhat flat quarterly earnings from Isbank at TRY14.5bn, while Garanti is likely to have its bottomline increasing by 40% qoq from TRY12.9bn in 2Q22 to TRY18bn in 3Q22. Based on quarterly earnings evolution differential, as well as the YTD relative stock performance, we issue a long Garanti Bank short Isbank pair trade.
AGENDA:
• The Current Account Balance will be released today, with Bloomberg Estimate expecting a deficit of USD 3.10bn, whereas on the international front, IMF Global Economic Report will be released.

 
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 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.