TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS TO CONVENE THIS WEEK TO DECIDE WHETHER TO BE HAWKISH OR DOVISH
" Diverging positively from the global markets, the BIST closed 3% higher to reach 5005 level on Friday, with a turnover of TRY 95.6bn, thus paring its earlier losses in the week, to record a rise of 0.85%. We expect a flat opening for today.
" SASA, VESTL and KOZAL led the gains at the BIST30, whereas GUBRF was the only BIST30 stock in the red, with TUPRS and SAHOL closing Friday flat.
" For the week, the Transportation stocks once again were the best performers, encouraged by the sharp fall in its main cost-line, fuel, followed by the REITs, whereas the Industrials fell by 1%, countered by the Conglomerates' gains, and the Banks rose by just 0.54%, less than 1% cumulative in the last 2 weeks. KONTR, ISMEN, and ASELS were this week's biggest movers, whereas TUPRS, JANTS and ENKAI were the most sold.
" Today, we may see some regulation pressure backed selling on the Banks limiting the gains at the BIST.
" As of Friday's close, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 18.64, but stronger against the Euro at 19.60. The 2yr benchmark bonds rose by 21bps on Friday, once again above the 10% to 10.19%, whereas the 10yr rates fell by 6bps to 10.75%. The 5yr CDS rates will start the new week from the 523 level, thus falling from last week's 532 rate.
" On the commodity front, Brent is trading slightly higher, just below the USD 77 level, and ounce and gram GOLD prices are lower at USD 1788 and TRY 1072, respectively.
" This week, the FOMC, ECB and BOE will all be convening to disclose their policy rate hikes.
NEWS FLOW:
" BANKS: According to the Official Gazette, the BRSA has reduced the net foreign currency position of Banks to 5% from the previous 20% of their total reserves, with the new rule to come into effect on January 9th, 2023. We deem the news especially negative for GARAN, which carries the highest net FX position, followed by TSKB and Isbank.
" Iron & Steel: The WTO ruled on Friday that U.S. tariffs imposed on steel and aluminium imports by then President Donald Trump, in 2018, contravened global trading rules in a judgment immediately criticised by Washington, thus recommending the US to bring its actions to conformity. This may also be positive for aluminium coverage company CUSAN.
" AUTOMOTIVE: According to the Automotive Distribution Organization, 11m22 showed that production increased by 6%, and exports by 5%. Passenger vehicle productions increased by 2% to 717,368, whereas LCV production rose by 13%.
" PGSUS: Disclosed that its November passenger numbers increased by 12% yoy to 2.2 million in November 2022. Passenger occupancy rate increased by 6.6 percentage points to 87.4% in November compared to the same period of the previous year.
" GESAN: Disclosed that it has signed an agreement to establish 2 solar-power energy plants for TCELL worth USD 17.9mn
" KORDS: Disclosed that it will establish a subsidiary in Germany in-line with its growth strategy.
AGENDA:
" The Current Account will kick-off the local news flow, (Cons. TRY -1.62bn), and followed by the Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production (Cons. -0.7% m/m), Retail Trade, Home Sales figures, Central Gov't Balance, Foreigners' Weekly Net Stock/Bond Holdings, Expected 12mth Inflation, and House Price Index.
" On the US front, the CPI figures will be released, (Cons. 0.3% m/m) as well as the FOMC, (Cons. +50bps), and followed by the Retail Sales Figures, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and PMI, whereas the Eurozone will also be following the ECB policy rate decision, as well as the IP and PMI figures, with the BOE also to meet this week.

 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.