TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

" The BIST100 closed Friday on a loss of 1.13%, at 5385, and turnover of TRY 86.3bn, despite a brief buying frenzy as the higher-than-expected Unemployment figures from the U.S. offset the higher-than-expected NFP figures.
" The Banks and the Mining stocks managed to diverge positively from their peers, whereas the Industrial and Conglomerate stocks weighed down on the benchmark.
" On the BIST30 side, KOZAA, TCELL and TKFEN were the biggest gainers, whereas EREGL, ARCLK and ASELS were the most sold.
" For the week, the BIST closed 3.30% higher, thanks to the 16.22% surge in the Banking stocks, after their poor start to the year, and the 5% gains in the Conglomerates, whereas the Transportation and Mining stocks lagged the general gauge.
" The TRY weakened slightly against the USD and Euro by 0.54% and 0.40% on a weekly basis, and the 2yr yields rose by 0.38% whereas the recent rise in the 10yr rates was muted last week, recording a meagre gain of 0.17%.
" Today, we expect the BIST to kick-off the new week on a positive tone.
" As of Friday's close, the TRY is trading flat at 18.97 against the USD, but weaker against the Euro at 2034, whereas the DXY is lower at 103.83 this morning. The 2yr and 10yr bond yields will open the new week from the 10.53% and 11.58%, respectively.
" On the commodity front, Gold is up 1% from Friday's BIST close while Brent is currently trading a tad higher at USD 82.73, as too are ounce and gram GOLD at USD 1880 and TRY 1146, respectively.
" Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the Government won't bail out Silicon Valley Bank but will weigh safeguarding deposits.
" Treasury and Finance Minister Nebati stated that the severance pay Treasury guarantee size will be increased to TRY 50bn from the current TRY 25bn in the Credit Guarantee Fund.
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
" ALARK SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE: Posted EBITDA loss of TRY188mn, which is totally unexpected. Net profit of TRY3,956mn for 4Q22, in line with the market consensus of TRY3,920mn. EBITDA from construction business was TRY124mn in 4Q22, net profit was at TL199mn in 4Q22. EBITDA from land development was -TRY1mn but net profit of the segment was TRY2,364mn due to revaluation of assets. EBITDA generated from industrial segment was TRY83mn in 4Q22 and net profit came in at TRY375mn in 4Q22, EBITDA from tourism was TRY23mn in 4Q22, while net profit was TRY9mn. Overall we deem the results neutral for the company.
" KRVGD NEGATIVE: Kervan Gıda disclosed a net profit of TRY137.54mn in 4Q22, surpassing market projections by an astounding 85%. Nonetheless, after accounting for deferral tax, net profit shrank to TRY53mn, falling short of the market's average prediction by 28%. Operationally, EBITDA suffered a considerable 40% decline from the previous quarter, which is in line with the mean market estimate. However, the EBITDA margin missed the market's expectation by 1.7 percentage points, settling at 9.2% as a result of net sales surpassing expectations by 14%.
" SOKM NEUTRAL: Announced its 4Q22 results thate is in line with expectations in every item in Q4. Net profit was TRY574mn, down 52% qoq, while EBITDA rose 12.5% qoq to TRY1.47bn. Company shared its guidance for 2023: Net Sales Growth : 80% (+/- 5%) , EBITDA Margin (inc. IFRS 16): 7.5% - 8.0% , CAPEX: ~ TL 2.5 billion (+/- TL 100 million), Store Openings: 750 stores (+/- 50 stores).
" SUNTK NEUTRAL: In line with our expectation SUNTK delivered a net income of TRY220mn in 4Q22, which is reinforced by the TRY79mn deferred tax income. EBITDA slipped 8% q-q, settling at TRY124mn, while the EBITDA margin is almost stable q-q at 12%.
" TRGYO NEGATIVE: posted TRY18553mn net profit, TRY496mn EBITDA and TRY700mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is 9% above the consensus mean, net sales is 21% below the consensus mean and EBITDA was 13% below the consensus mean, EBITDA Margin was 70.9% realized vs 64.5% expected. Overall we deem the negative due to lower-than-expected EBITDA and Revenue numbers.
" ULKER POSITIVE: ULKER posted TRY983mn net profit, TRY1834mn EBITDA and TRY9018mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. The net profit is 93% above the consensus mean due to deferred tax gains, net sales is 10% above the consensus mean whereas EBITDA was 26% above the consensus mean, EBITDA Margin was 20.3% realized vs 17.9% expected. Overall we deem the results positive due to better-than-expected results and higher EBITDA margin.
" VESTL NEGATIVE: Posted TRY102mn net loss, TRY1329mn EBITDA and TRY19272mn sales in its 4Q22 financials. Net sales is in line with the consensus mean whereas EBITDA was 6% below the consensus mean due to lower than expected EBITDA Margin which was 6.9% realized vs 7.4% consensus mean. Company posted TRY102mn net loss while consensus mean was TRY392mn profit. Financial expenses and other income and expenses skyrocketed in 4Q2022. Even deferred tax gains was not able to turn loss to profit. Overall we deem the results negative due to lower-than-expected EBITDA margin and increasing financial expenses affecting the bottom line.
NEWS FLOW:
" AKGRT: Disclosed that in February, its premiums rose by 100% to TRY 1.3bn, and 91% to TRY 3.1bn Jan-Feb23.
" DOAS Disclosed that it has agreed with 3 banks for €150mn, and that its DGGYO shares would be used a lien.
" HTTBT: Disclosed that it has extended its agreement with Pakistan Airlines for another 5yrs.
" SMRTG: Disclosed that it has signed a TRY 276.6mn new project agreement.
AGENDA:
" On the local front, investors will be watching the Current Account Balance, followed by the Budget Balance, the CBRT Participation Survey, and Fitch Credit Rating (B/Negative), whereas the most important news flow this week will be the Inflation figures from the US on Tuesday, New Home Starts, Industrial Production, and the Michigan Consumer Confidence Numbers, whereas the Eurozone will disclose the Industrial Production and policy rate, and Inflation, and China will release its Retail Sales and Industrial Production Numbers.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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