TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• It was another roller-coaster ride at the BIST, peaking at 5419, and bottoming at 5103, just points shy of the 5% BIST circuit-break, before buyers got their carts ready and went bargain hunting, enabling the BIST100 to close on a loss of 1.28% at 5298, with a turnover of TRY 112.7bn.
• The Banks led the sell-offs, falling by 3.17%, whereas the Aviation and Mining stocks managed to diverge positively from their peers.
• On the BIST30 front, PGSUS, KOZAA and TAVHL led the gains, whereas GARAN, ISCTR and HALKB were the most sold.
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST, but would expect the volatility to remain.
• As of yesterday’s close, the TRY is trading flat against the USD at 18.81, and also flat against the Euro at 20.53, whereas the DXY has retreated slightly to 101.65. The 2yr and 10yr bond yields both rose slightly by 7bps and 8bps, to 10.30% and 10.16%, respectively. The CDS rates rose by 5pts to 557.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading flat against USD 86.10, and both ounce and gram GOLD are trading higher at USD 1946 and TRY 1176, respectively. Please note yesterday that the U.S. announced that it will send 31 M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, coming on the heels of Germany agreeing to send 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks from its own stocks. Germany had said the Leopards would not be sent unless the U.S. put its Abrams on the table, not wanting to incur Russia’s wrath without the U.S. similarly committing its own tanks. As such, we deem this latest escalation in tension to put an upwards pressure on GOLD prices.
• According to Bloomberg, the CBRT is considering a measure to deter lenders from selling currency derivatives to their customers, the latest effort to curb growing corporate demand for dollars. The monetary authority is designing a new regulation to require banks to hold collateral for forward contracts, with the goal of ultimately cooling off demand for hard currency in the spot market.
• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard is a top contender to become the head of the White House’s National Economic Council.
• The German ifo index rose to 90.2 in Jan. vs 88.6 in Dec., thus likely avoiding a recession, but seeing a slight contraction in q123 GDP.
• Turkey January Capacity Utilization Rate fell by 1.2pts from last month to 75.3.
• The UN forecasts Turkey’s GDP growth rate to reach 3.7% in 2023, and 3.5% in 2024.
4q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS
• ARCLK: Disclosed a 4q22 NI of TRY 2.565bn vs. Est. TRY 998mn and TRY 790mn 4q21, an increase of 198%, but thanks to the TRY 1.5mn investment gains. EBITDA came in at TRY 3.601bn vs Est. TRY 3.645bn, and the EBTIDA margin increased to 9.2 from 7.8 y/y, but below the market expectation of 9.4. YE22 sales TRY 133.92mn (+96% y/y) vs BBG Est. TRY 132.49bn, YE22 NI: TRY 4.72bn vs Est. TRY 2.9bn. In line operational results. Net income is above expectations thanks to investment income and deferred tax reversal.
NEWS FLOW:
• The CBRT disclosed yesterday that it would grant a 2% FX conversion support to companies that sell at least 40% of their FX.
• ARCLK: ARCLK 4q22 NI came in at TRY2.56bn vs Est. TRY 998mn vs 4q21 NI: TRY 790mn Net sales came in at TRY39.2bn with 74% increase y-y, EBITDA TRY3.60bn vs Est. TRY3.64. Profit stemmed from the acquisition of IHP App JSC and deferred tax income.
• EKGYO: Disclosed yesterday that it targets a total of TRY 62.9bn sales in 2023 with 4.22b liras net profit. Please recall in 2022, total sales amounted to TRY 27.4bn, comprised of 4,073 independent unit sales, with 223 units sold to foreigners for TRY 1.9bn.
• GESAN: Disclosed that it has signed a USD 2.6mn solar-power agreement
• HEKTS: Disclosed that a major shareholder had made 1.104,973 shares registered to be tradeable
• KONTR: Shares will be subject to gross settlement until February 24th.
• SAHOL: Disclosed that it bought back 750k shares between TRY 40.22-41.50
AGENDA:
• On the local front today, the CBRT Inflation Assessment Report will be disclosed, as well at the weekly Foreigners’’ Net/Stock Investments, whereas in the U.S., 4Q22 GDP Growth numbers, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and of course, the Weekly Jobless Claims, will be disclosed.
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.