Market Watch (Şeker Yatırım)

Market Watch - Monday, April 17, 2023
Outlook:
The BIST100 Index started Friday with buyers. The Benchmark Index then declined amid afternoon sales to close at 5,092.88, down 0.83%. The Banking Index diverged negatively, down 1.59%, while the Industrial Index lost 0.66%. On a weekly basis, the BIST100 index maintained its reactionary uptrend for the second week, rising 3.42%. The Banking Index gained 3.58% and the Industrial Index 2.63%. Election uncertainty and the expectation that orthodox policies may be adopted thereafter, plus the rise in deposit rates, including Currency Protected Deposits suggest selling pressure for the BIST. In light of these, we expect purchases ahead of the election to present a selling opportunity. The fluctuating course will continue within the broad band that the index has seen since the start of the year. Incidentally, we expect stock and sector-based divergences to impact the market in the short term with the effect of the 1Q23 results season that commences this week. In major global stock markets risk appetite has attempted a recovery. Last week US inflation data pointed to a decline. With the expectation that Fed interest rate hikes are approaching as a result, the rise in stocks and assets such as gold continued during the week. Major stock markets ended the week with an overall gain of over 1%. This morning US and German DAX futures and Asian indices are trading with buyers. Domestically, the VIOP-30 Index closed the Friday evening session up 0.27%. We expect the Benchmark Index to start Monday positively and thereafter pursue a volatile course, with any intraday gains presenting a selling opportunity. SUPPORT: 5,058- 5,010 RESISTANCE: 5,144 - 5,260.
Money Market:
The Lira was negative on Friday, weakening 0.14% compared to the USD to close to 19.3650. In addition, the currency appreciated by 0.21% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were positive. The ten-year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 12.17%-12.48%, ending at the 12.32%, 68 bps below its previous closing.
Headlines:
Central Government Budget Statistics for March will be published today. We expect the trend in the budget deficit - which has risen sharply due to increased public expenditures and deferred tax collections led by post-earthquake infrastructure investments - to continue decreasing on a monthly basis. Our detailed analysis will be published within the day.
Company News:
Bim (BIMAS.TI; OP) has announced the Board of Directors' decision to distribute a gross cash dividend of 200.00000% (TRY 2.0000000 /share) starting from June 14, 2023 and 300.00000% (TRY 3.0000000 /share) starting from December 20, 2023, with the two installments making a total of 500.00000% (TRY 5.0000000 /share), from its activities of 2022. The total amount of the cash dividend, to be submitted for approval at the General Assembly on May 16, 2023, indicates a gross dividend yield of 3.02% according to the BIMAS stock closing price on April 14, 2023.
For Isbank (ISCTR.TI; OP) our 1Q23 net income estimate is TRY12,368 (-47% QoQ, +47% YoY) with a quarterly ROAE of 28%. We expect the subsidiary income to normalize to TRY3.5bn. TRY loan growth in line with the sector average, relatively weak 13% QoQ TRY deposit growth, a contrary-to-sector trend 6% rise in FC deposits, decelerated fee and commission income and hike in OPEX are the major details of the quarter. Trading income should decline to TRY600mn, vs. TRY2.5bn in 4Q22.
TRY loan-deposit spread should tighten a limited 300bps QoQ. CPI linker income should fell only 10% QoQ as the bank uses a different valuation methodology. We foresee a limited 11% fall in swap funding costs. On the asset quality side, cumulative CoR (net) should reach 40bps due to lower ECL. Negative.

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                               Yasal Uyarı
 
  Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.