TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• We are deeply grieved and saddened due to the losses caused by the large earthquakes that hit southeast Turkey this morning.
• The BIST was on repair mode on Friday, trying to pare the losses incurred earlier in the week, closing Friday on a buoyant gain of 5.16% to close at 4998, with a turnover of TRY 97.7bn, led by the gain in the Banks, and followed by the Transportation and Conglomerates. The Banks outpaced their peers, on the back of higher dividend pay-outs this year, as we sent out on Friday.
• Thus, AKBNK, YKBNK and TUPRS led the gains at the BIST30, whereas GUBRF, KOZAL and SASA were the most sold.
• On a weekly basis, the BIST100 fell by 3.74%, dragged by the loss in the Energy and REITs, whereas the Banks fell by a mere 1.76%. ALBRK, SELEC, and DOAS were the most bought stocks last week, whereas GUBRF, ULKER and TKFEN were the most sold.
• The TRY was little changed against the USD, but managed to gain value against the Euro by 0.57%, and was we have been alerting, the rise in the interest rates continued; the 2yr yields by 0.96%, but the 10yr yields by 4.13%. Brent fell sharply by 7.46%, and both ounce and gram GOLD also fell by over 3%.
• Today, we expect a positive opening at the BIST.
• As of Friday’s close, the TRY is trading flat at 18.83 against the USD, and 20.33 against the Euro, and the DXY has risen slightly to 103.08. The 5yr CDS rates will start the new week from the 524 level, vs. last week’s opening level of 553.
• On the commodity front, Brent has managed to leap over the USD 80 level to USD 80.12, whereas ounce and gram GOLD are rising steadily this morning at USD 1977 and 1136, respectively.
• Azerbaijan stated that they have reached a deal with Turkey on the transit of Azerbaijan’s natural gas to Europe, and sees its gas exports to Turkey rising 19% this year.
• The G7 nations and the European Union member states have agreed to impose a cap of $100 per barrel on sales of Russian diesel to third countries as part of an effort to limit Moscow’s revenues., and they have also backed a cap of $45 for those that sell at a discount, such as fuel oil and some types of naphtha, which may be positive for TUPRS shares.
• ECB Governing Council Member, Robert Holzmann, stated that the interest rates may peak around the middle of the year or by the third quarter at the latest, which can lead to renewed reductions over the coming years.
• U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, postponed his trip to China amid the shooting down of an alleged Chinese spy balloon, off the coast of South Carolina. China, said that the device was a civilian climate research vehicle that unexpectedly drifted over American territory, denounced the US’s “clear overreaction” in deciding to use force.
• This morning, the Southeast region of Turkey was hit by a powerful earthquake that left buildings ruined, and lives lost. However, as we have to focus on the business repercussions of this natural disaster, we would deem the insurance sector to be negatively affected, whereas the construction and cement companies would be positive, not matter how hard it is for us to write this sentence.
• ISCTR (TFG: NI: TRY 19.437bn vs Est. TRY 19.404bn) and TTRAK are expected to release their financials after the markets close today.
4Q22 FINANCIAL RESULTS:
• SISE: Negative. The numbers are operationally weak while the bottom-line is 24% better than consensus mean. The EBITDA for 4Q22 of TRY4.6bn is 20% below the consensus mean. EBITDA margin came in at 16% vs the 20% expectation. Company aims to commission glass packaging furnace in Eskisehir plant and auto glass-dedicated new furnace investment in Kirklareli plant in 1H. Company produced 5.8 million tons of glass, 4.9 million tons of soda ash, and 4.4 million tons of industrial raw materials in 2022. Sisecam's ongoing investments including natural soda ash investment in US reach up to a total of $7b worldwide.
• Anadolu Sigorta. Positive: Way higher than the TRY220mn consensus, the company posted TRY635mn net profit for 4Q22. Positive reaction unlikely due to the earthquake catastrophe.
NEWS FLOW:
• Turkey January CPI figure rose higher than expected at 6.65% vs. the Est. 4% m/, and 57.68% y/y vs the Est. 53.80% and 64.27% on an annual basis in December. Core CPI came in at 52.9% vs the Est. 46.7%, and the PPI rose by 4.15% to 86.46% y/y.
• THYAO: Disclosed that it cancelled 238 flights due to severe weather conditions.
AGENDA:
• The local macro flow will kick-off today with the REER (Prev. 54.66), and follow with the Cash Budget Balance, Weekly Foreigners’ Net Stock/Bond Investments, Unemployment Rate, and the Industrial Production (Est. -1.9% y/y).
• On the U.S. front, the Trade Balance, Consumer Credit, MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, Continuing Claims, U. of Michigan Expectations and Monthly Budget Statement and revised CPI figures will be watched, whereas the U.K will be releasing its GDP growth rate, Japan, its Foreign Trade Balance and PPI, and China, will release its Inflation figures.
 
 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.