TFG Istanbul Morning Report (TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler )

• The BIST closed the week on a sour note, due to the much higher than expected NFP figures, and higher earnings numbers, thus dampening hopes of a dovish Fed rate hikes, thus falling on Friday by 1.65% to 4963, and turnover of TRY 111, with the Banks dragging the gauge lower by losing 3.37% in value, whereas the Aviation and to a lesser extent, the REITS, managed to diverge positively from the benchmark.
• VESTL, THYAO and GUBRF led the gains at the BIST30, whereas SASA, BIMAS and TCELL were the most sold.
• On a weekly basis, the BIST100 managed to close 1.82% higher, led by VESTL, GENIL and YATAS, whereas KONTR, GWIND and SASA were the most sold.
• On a sector basis, the Transportation stocks coasted past their peers, rising on average by nearly 12%, and followed by the REITs with an average yield of 6.23% and the Industrials rose by 3%, but the Banks saw a slight rise of 1/3 percent, and the Conglomerates were practically unmoved. The Energy stocks, rose by 1%.
• The TRY was flat against the USD, however, the TRY lost 1.17% value against the Euro, thus boding well with local exporters to Europe.
• Brent rose by 2.24%, amid speculations that the OPEC+ members would most likely leave the supply rate unchanged, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices rose by 2.50% due to expectations of less aggressive rate hikes from the Fed, cemented by Chairman Powell’s speech on Wednesday.
• Today, we may see the BIST open positively due to reactionary buybacks.
• As of 18:10 session close on Friday, the TRY is trading flat at 18.63 against the USD, but has weakened considerably against the euro to 19.71. The 2yr and 10yr yields fell by 8bps and 18bps respectively to 10.48% and 10.67%. The DXY has fallen slightly to 104.13, and the Eur/USD parity is at 1.06. The 5yr CDS rates will start the new week from the 510 level, compared to last week’s opening 542.
• On the commodity front, Brent is trading slightly lower at USD 85.85 due to the USD 60 cap Russian oil, despite OPEC+ announcing that it has left the production levels unchanged, and both ounce and gram GOLD prices are trading higher at USD 1808 and TRY 1083, respectively.
• Shanghai disclosed that it will scrap some Covid test requirements as of today, thus, we are observing a rebound in commodity prices, especially in iron ore prices. Thus, we may see this price surge reflect positively onto KRDMD shares.
• Over the weekend, the Main Opposition Party, CHP, unveiled some of its economic, political and social policies at the launch of its ““The CHP’s Second Century Vision, ” which included speeches from Kilicdaroglu’s top economic aides and prominent economists, including Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Daron Acemoglu, and vowed to secure USD 100bn direct investment if elected, as well as an additional $75 billion investment in the first three years, from pension funds and wealth funds abroad.
• Today, ECB Head, Christine Lagarde will be holding a speech.
• Please note on Friday, we published our “Buy” Research Report on FrigoPak Gida (FRIGO.TI), with a target price of TRY18.37/share-derived solely through our DCF model, representing a 134% upside potential, and trading at a 44% discount to peers at 9M22 EV/EBITDA. The 2023E EV/EBITDA of the company stands at a mere 3.8x. The company offers a hedge against inflation, robust growth and improved profitability, and diversified international sales, with 92% of gross sales are exports to developed countries, as of 9m22!
NEWS FLOW:
• BIMAS: Head of BIMAS, Mr. Galip Erkac has resigned from his as the head of the Food Retailers Association
AGENDA:
• On the local front, the CPI figures will kick-off the week, (Cons. +3.00% m7m; +84.90% y/y), and followed by the REER, Cash Budget Balance, Weekly Foreign net Stock/Bond holdings.
• On the international front, the US PMI, Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders, PPI, and Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment will be released, whereas our European colleagues will be tracking the PMI and GDP growth figures.


 TFG Istanbul Menkul Değerler A.Ş.
  www.tfgistanbul.com/arastirma-raporlar
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                  Yasal Uyarı
 
 Burada yer alan yatırım bilgi, yorum ve tavsiyeler yatırım danışmanlığı kapsamında değildir.Yatırım danışmanlığı hizmeti ; aracı kurumlar, portföy yönetim şirketleri, mevduat kabul etmeyen bankalar ile müşteri arasında imzalanacak yatırım danışmanlığı sözleşmesi çerçevesinde sunulmaktadır.Burada yer alan yorum ve tavsiyeler, yorum ve tavsiyede bulunanların kişisel görüşlerine dayanmaktadır.Bu görüşler mali durumunuz ile risk ve getiri tercihlerinize uygun olmayabılır.Bu nedenle, sadece burada yer alan bilgilere dayanılarak yatırım kararı verilmesi beklentilerinize uygun sonuçlar doğurmayabilir.